Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”