Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
