A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
