How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Strip Breakthrough Which Escaped Biden
Initially, the Israeli aerial attack on the Hamas militant delegation in Qatar appeared like another escalation that drove the hope of a ceasefire further away.
The attack on September 9 violated the territorial integrity of an American ally and threatened expanding the conflict into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy seemed to be in ruins.
However, it proved to be a key moment that culminated in a agreement, announced by Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
This is a objective that Trump, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the initial phase towards a lasting resolution, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout remain to be worked out.
But if this deal stands, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his second term - one that eluded Joe Biden and his administration.
The president's unique style and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.
But, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also elements involved beyond the influence of either man.
Strong Ties That Eluded Biden
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump often states that Israel has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has called Trump as Israel's "most supportive friend in the US presidency". And these warm words have been matched by actions.
During his initial time in office, the president relocated the American diplomatic mission in the country from Tel Aviv to the contested capital and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the view under global norms.
When Israel began its air strikes against Iran in the summer, Trump directed US bombers to target the Iran's atomic sites with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
Those visible shows of support may have given Trump the leeway to apply more pressure on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, the president's envoy, his representative, pressured Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some hostages.
After Israel attacked against Syria's military in July, even bombing a place of worship, the US president pressured Netanyahu to alter tactics.
The leader exhibited a degree of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, says an analyst of the a think tank. "There is no example of an US leader directly instructing an Israeli leader that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's connection with Netanyahu's government was consistently more tenuous.
His administration's "bear hug approach" held that the United States had to support Israel publicly in order to enable it to moderate the country's war conduct in private.
Underneath this was the president's decades-long of support for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Every step the leader took risked dividing his own political backing, while his successor's loyal conservative voters gave him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, internal considerations or personal relationships may have had less importance than the reality that, throughout his term, the Israeli government was unwilling to reach an agreement.
Several months into Trump's second term, with the Islamic Republic chastened, Hezbollah to its northern border significantly reduced and Gaza in ruins, all its major strategy objectives had been achieved.
Commercial Background Helped Gain Gulf's Backing
The Israeli missile attack in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, led the president to deliver an final demand to Netanyahu. The war had to stop.
Trump had given the Israeli military a significant latitude in Gaza. The president lent US armed support to Israel's campaign in Iran. However an attack on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, moving him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of administration figures have informed media outlets that this was a decisive moment which motivated the president to exert maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
This US president's close ties with the Gulf states are well documented. Trump has business dealings with Qatar and the UAE. The president began each of his administrations with official trips to Saudi Arabia. This year, Trump also visited in Doha and the UAE capital.
His normalization agreements, which normalised relations between Israel and a number of Arab nations, such as the UAE, was the biggest foreign policy success of his first term.
His visits he spent in the cities of the Gulf region in recent months contributed to shift his perspective, according to an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the United Arab Emirates, the kingdom and the state where the leader heard repeated calls to bring an end to the conflict.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on the city, the president sat nearby as the prime minister personally phoned the Qatari leadership to apologise. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on the president's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the support of key Muslim nations in the area.
Assuming Trump's alliance with his counterpart gave him the ability to pressure the government to strike a deal, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and helped them persuade the group to agree to the deal.
"One of the things that evidently occurred was that the US leader gained influence with the Israelis, and indirectly with the militants," notes Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"This was crucial. His ability to achieve this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the desires of the combatants has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have faced, and he appears to handle with some success."
The fact that Trump is far better liked in Israel than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that he employed to his advantage, the expert continues.
Currently the Israeli government has committed to releasing more than 1,000 Palestinians held in its jails and has consented to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
Hamas will release all the remaining hostages, living and dead, captured during the initial October 7 assault, which resulted in the death of more than 1,200 Israelis.
An end to the war, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal